APPLE - EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY
There is no trade recommendation. Just for study purposes. Level marked in the chart. Excellent opportunity in Apple - Add 50% at 173 and the remaining 50% at 166. Stop Loss - 1 % of portfolio.
Read MoreThere is no trade recommendation. Just for study purposes. Level marked in the chart. Excellent opportunity in Apple - Add 50% at 173 and the remaining 50% at 166. Stop Loss - 1 % of portfolio.
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Read MoreHello, Exxon Mobil Corp engages in the exploration, development, and distribution of oil, gas, and petroleum products. It operates through the following segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment produces crude oil and natural gas. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown below Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The price is a corrective pattern. Expanding triangle Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on MACD. Breakout on the corrective wave could confirm further upside Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price $126 for exit (no buy opportunity from current price) Next earnings report date: Jan 31st 2025 Market capitalization: 528.77 Billion ExxonMobil financial performance for the first nine months of 2024: Total Revenue and other income at 266.159 billion nine months ended 30th September 2024 Year-to-date earnings were $26.1 billion versus $28.4 billion in the same period last year Net Income including non-controlling interests at $27.1 Billion, a decrease of $2.2 billion from the prior year period. Cash and cash equivalents $26.9 billion versus $31.5 Billion in the same period last year Total liabilities at 185.5 billion versus $163.8Billion in the same period last year ExxonMobil plans to continue its strategic focus on high-return projects and operational efficiencies, with an anticipated investment level of approximately $28 billion in 2024. The company aims to advance its low carbon business plans, including carbon capture, biofuel production, and other emission reduction initiatives. Acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources: Completed on May 3, 2024, this acquisition is expected to bolster upstream production capabilities, particularly in the Permian Basin. www.tradingview.com Challenges and Risks Market Risks: Price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, industry refining margins, and chemical margins. Operational Risks: Integration of the Pioneer acquisition, volume growth and production challenges, and higher expenses from increased depreciation and maintenance activities. Regulatory Risks: Tax-related items, government mandates, and changes in sustainable production levels due to government-imposed production limits or sanctions. Emerging Risks: Supply chain disruptions, environmental regulations, and future policies and technological advancements related to emissions reduction and sustainability. Management’s Strategies: Focus on strategic projects and high-value products, structural cost savings, and prioritizing investments in high-return projects while maintaining a strong balance sheet and consistent shareholder returns. Our Recommendation Exxon Mobil remains fundamentally strong with a robust balance sheet, but its stock appears overstretched, presenting some risk. The company’s stock has been trading in a sideways range since February 2023 to date. In October 2024, the company traded at a 52-week high of 126.34, a gain of over 30% just in the year 2024. While a Trump presidency could influence the oil industry, fluctuations in oil prices typically have a more significant impact on oil company stocks. Recently ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods was quoted to saying “I don’t think the level of production in the U.S. is being constrained by external restrictions,”. He added: “I’m not sure how ‘drill, baby, drill’ translates into policy.” Given the current price of $120.31, we do not see an immediate buying opportunity. Instead, we recommend exiting around the all-time high of $126.34, as a larger correction in the stock seems likely. President-elect Donald Trump said that oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright would be his pick to lead the Department of Energy. Wright is the founder and CEO of Liberty Energy. He is a defender of fossil fuel use and is expected to support Trump's plan to maximize production of oil and gas. Good luck & best of luck.
Read MoreIn the trading business you need to let your profits run while also managing your risks that means to cut your losses short. Losses of unrealized profits are real profits that are lost. What if you could save them? Well, there is a way... It is not always available but it is one you want to know since if you can save 3 points of wiggle room and pay 1 point or less, over the long run it adds up to HUGE chunk of profit to your bottom line. The reason I applied this method is because TSLA was doing 3 days in a row a push and gap up, so it seems likely people will want to take profits... but this is TSLA... it can shoot up above 500 and reach who knows where... (she did it before...). So I want to TAKE MY HUGE profit, while giving it the option to continue to the moon, if it will want to do so... You can never take the very top anyway, so if you "give back" 1 point of profit it is considered reasonable, but if in case the price falls down sharply or gapped down I can give back maybe 3 points with this strength of volatility, which is undesireable. So what I did? I sold the PUT option at strike 470 at a price of $15 (my point was $17) so for me it is even less than a point so it is very attractive deal to me... Then... if the price had crushed down it meant for me that I sold my stocks at a price of 470 while paying the hedge cost of the PUT option of 15 so it is equivalent to me that I sold my stock at a price of 455, which is ALMOST the top. Making sure ~90% of the profit stays in my pocket. So I WIN. If the price would continue to shoot up, then I making SUPER HUGE MONEY, while sleeping like a baby, that I already realized my HUGE profit. So I WIN. So either way, I WIN ! Since the price did not crushed the next day and hold, and my stop loss advanced, so there was no longer need to my PUT option hedge since if price will fall I will get out with the stop loss with the same profit. So I sold the PUT hedge for a small loss, so the hedge cost me 0.25 a point overall. SUPER WORTH IT ! FYI, this comes from years of experience, but I give you some of my experience, you could do it too. The moral of the story... when you have HUGE profit, and you feel itchy to take profit, don't ! and try to hedge yourself with options ! this way, if you were wrong and you have GME, AMC on your hand, you don't let them go, and you WIN either way ! Sleeping like a baby.
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